I Have Been Guilty of Spreading Wrong Info... Here is the True Legacy of Abraham Wald

Ever heard of the story that mathematician Abraham Wald and the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University was asked by USAAF in WW2 to "optimize" the location armor in the B-17 bomber, due to heavy losses of B-17s over the skies of Germany in 1943. Wald allegedly told all the generals "you are doing it all wrong", because they only concentrated on armoring where the survivors (that made it back to base) got hit, and presumably, he did it right, and the bombers started surviving... Nerd triumphs over dumb military. Great story. Right? 

I just learned that was a lie, an urban myth. 

Photo by Gary Wann on Unsplash

But they story is far more nuanced than that. So... let me start from the beginning. My current citing is mostly coming from this blogpost by Bill Sweetman for Hush-Kit, and a feature column by Mathematician Bill Casselman for American Mathematical Society. 

First, did US suffer tremendous bomber losses in 1943? Yes, but the PRIMARY reason Americans were suffering tremendous losses was because Americans insisted on conducting day-time bombing raids. Both British and German air forces have switched to night-time raids against each other as they can't sustain such losses with day-time raids. 

Second, did Wald wrote a study on survivability? Well... the SRG *did* help write *something* in 1943, and we based this on the autobiographical memoir by W. Allen Wallis, who was with Wald in the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University. But the memoir was really two short and vague mentions and mostly about his own work on aircraft vulnerability calculations. And we did find actual memoranda written by Wald. That's it, that's all the evidence.

As for Wald's own memos, it's a series of very dry equations on how to more accurately calculate the vulnerability of an aircraft based on variety of factors, It's NOT about how to redesign the armor.

Indeed, B-17 actually entered service back in 1938. B-24 entered service in 1941. By 1943, both designs have been long finalized. There were NO evidence that armor were shifted in bombers manufactured after 1943. Indeed, NO version of the Wald story can actually point out WHAT EXACTLY was changed in B-17 or B-24 post-1943. 

Unfortunately, Wald died in 1950 in a plane crash, so we can't ask him about it. We have to rely on whatever paper or recollections left behind. And the memos left behind by Wald was collected by Wallis when SRG shutdown in 1946, but was not rediscovered until 1980, when it was edited by Phil DePoy and published under Wald's name posthumously in 1981 by Center of Naval Analyses, along with an explainer article on what it meant by Marc Mangel and Francisco Samaniego. 

In the late 1990s, statistician Howard Wainer started using that story in his lectures and and books. This is when the "chicken pox bomber" diagram got attached to the story, but the diagram is usually of a 2-engine plane with a bunch of red dots all over it. (B-17 and B-24 are FOUR-engine bombers!)

Sometime in 2010s, writer / mathematician Jordan Ellenberg included a section about Wald's work in his book "How Not to Be Wrong", where he used as non-technical explanation as possible. However, he wrote it in a way that could have been misinterpreted:

 “The officers saw an opportunity for efficiency; you can get the same protection with less armor if you concentrate the armor on the places with the greatest need, where the planes are getting hit the most. But exactly how much more armor belonged on those parts of the plane? That was the answer they came to Wald for. It wasn’t the answer they got.”

Presumably, someone read this and concluded that Wald had told the Generals how to redesign the bomber's armor allocation. We have no evidence that Wald ever said such thing. Indeed, in Wallis' memoir, he stated that SRG only do math, and reallocating armor is not what they do and it wasn't what the USAAF asked for any way. 

Unfortunately, Jordan Ellenberg went on to include this whopper:

“Wald’s recommendations were quickly put into effect, and were still being used by the navy and the air force through the wars in Korea and Vietnam.”

There was no evidence that Wald ever made any recommendations (for aircraft redesign or otherwise). Perhaps Ellenberg meant that Wald's equation to estimate survivability was still in use in subsequent wars? Given that the book this passage appeared in was "How not to be Wrong", it is extremely ironic. 

And now you know everything I know about this. 

COVIDiocy Turnaround: Vaccine Skeptic's Near-Death COVID Experience Turned Him Into a Vaccine Believer

Howard Breidenbach of Oregon survived his COVID, but spent 102 days in the hospital, often near death, only kept alive by ventilators. He thought he was a healthy trucker, but with COVID he had lost everything. At the time of the interview with the local TV station, he is still on oxygen and is often coughing, and it may never go away. But at least he's alive. 

His advice to others? 

"I agree with them (the vaccine hesitant), they should have their choice.

"But at the same time, what freedom do you have in the grave, besides to be worm food?"

Remember, a shot of COVID vaccine is, at most, $20 in the US, and generally free. 

His 102-day stint in the ICU is about 250K total. 

Even monoclonal antibodies treatment is like $1250 per dose, and you need like 8 of them. 

Yes, he's vaccinated now. And he urged EVERYBODY to get vaccinated. 

Good for you, sir. A little late, but still, good for you. 

COVIDiocy Regret: Virginia Dad Barely Survived COVID, Recorded Regret from Hospital Bed

Travis Campbell of Bristol Virginia barely survived COVID. He was diagnosed of COVID on July 22nd, and went into the hospital two days later. Doctors told him any later and he may not have made it, as his lungs were being damaged, and he was admitted to pulmonary ICU right away. In early August, he was telling his wife and his Facebook viewers that he "truly regrets not getting the vaccine", and were making final arrangement just in case. 

But we're happy to say he has recovered sufficiently to go home after battling COVID for three weeks. 

Travis blames what he saw on social media for his misfortune. He is now pro-vaccine. 

Do NOT be like Travis WAS. Get vaccinated ASAP. 

COVIDiocy Regret: Vaccine Hesitant 25-yr old lost BOTH lungs to COVID, saved by transplant

A Georgia man by the name of Blake Bargatze was "vaccine hesitant", and basically will NOT take the vaccine "until it's been out ten years", according to his mother. Unfortunately for him, he caught COVID in April, and had to go on a ventilator. In June, he got a new set of lungs, and he lived. He told Insider, "They [the old lungs] were riddled with holes. I was just fortunate enough to not have multiple organ failures." 

He believed he caught COVID from a concert he attended in March, where he was masked, but not vaccinated. 

His message to the "vaccine hesitant"?

"I'm trying to make people become more aware of what realistically can happen with this virus. It's just not worth the risk,"

Yes, he lived, but he's taking 50 pills a day for recovery and anti-rejection for his organs.  

Don't regret NOT getting the vaccine like Blake. He'll have to take the pills FOR LIFE due to the lung transplants. 

Don't be a COVIDiot. Get vaxxed.