Data COVIDiocy: No, Ivermectin Did NOT Save Uttar Pradesh (India) from COVID-19

Gideon MK, an actual epidemiologist, has written an article on medium on how antivaxxers and IVM pimps such as the FLCCC, desperate to find any evidence to support their use of Ivermectin (IVM) instead of vaccines, had created a myth out of almost nothing. The article is not too long, but in case you need a TL;DR, here's a very quick summary. 

A) FLCCC made a claim that when IVM was included in the treatment protocol in Uttar Pradesh, both case numbers and deaths dropped like a rock. They even made a graph to show it. 

(Those of you who read this blog may notice this is a VERY similar claim used in the "Japan COVID cases fall after Tokyo Medical Association calls for IVM use". )

But what exactly is this "IVM included in treatment protocol"? Turns out, Uttar Pradesh did NOT include IVM in its treatment protocols until AUGUST. Since the "included in treatment" shading started in April, this can't possibly be referring to the official treatment protocol. 

Turns out, there were two separate "test, trace, and treat" efforts by WHO in Uttar Pradesh, Basically, workers went door to door offering tests for COVID, one for adults, and one for kids. If they test positive, they were told to self-isolate and were handed a medical kit. The one for children contained IVM. We don't know what's in the adult version. Based on the test numbers, even if one assumes that EVERYBODY who was tested was handed a kit containing IVM (positive or not, child or not), there are at best 5 million kits containing IVM handed out. Keep in mind that Uttar Pradesh has a population of well in excess of 200 million. Even if we take a conservative number, like 225 million (it could be as high as 250 million), 5 million kits of IVM is enough for just over 2% of the population. It could NOT have caused the sharp drop in both cases and deaths. 

Keep in mind that during most of May 2021, India's vaccination rate is BELOW 10% for even just ONE dose, much less both shots (it's like 3%). Testing efforts can't be much better. 

So the drop in COVID cases and deaths are far more likely result of the lockdown (which started in April 2021) and lack of testing than from IVM treatments. 

What's even more interesting to note is Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) COVID 19 National Task Force OFFICIALLY dropped both IVM and HQL in September 2021 in its treatment guidelines. 

If you read the comments, the IVM pimps went for "pharma shill gambit", i.e. "are you paid by Merck to write this?" While others call out what they see as "bias". 

Frankly, that's just barking up the wrong tree. 

Don't be a COVIDiot like these IVM pimps who sees IVM benefit when there was none. 

COVIDiocy Mythbuster: Are COVID Vaccines "Useless" Because of "Breakthrough Infections"?

 One of the more... exasperating talking points of antivaxxers can be roughly summarized as follows:

"I'm not getting vaccinated because vaccines don't work!"

"How did you know they don't work?"

"Because you can still catch COVID after you get vaccinated! And you can still die! Look at Colin Powell!"

As typical of most bad talking points, there is a hint of truth to it, but there's also a lot of missing context. 

Yes, you can get what's known as a "breakthrough infection" even after you are fully vaccinated for COVID. There are a variety of reasons for this. 

As for Colin Powell (RIP), he has "multiple myeloma", a cancer of the plasma cells that affected the body's immune system, as well as Parkinson's. In other words, he's immunocompromised. His body's immune system did not respond to the vaccine and did not produce enough antibodies to protect him. 

While the COVID vaccines provide protection against COVID, it is NOT an impenetrable shield. You should also mask up and avoid tight indoor spaces with unmasked people you don't know (who may or may not be infected) to present a multi-layered defense against COVID. 

And this is what antivaxxers's point comes down to: "if it is not 100% effective I don't want it!" 

In debate, this is called a nirvana fallacy or "perfect solution fallacy". If it's not perfect, it's not good enough. 

They want something that would let them live normal life and not mask up and do all the stuff they usually do. Great, so do we. But WE DO NOT HAVE THAT! 

And even if we do, they'll probably claim it's untested, unlicensed, un SOMETHING. They will play "no true Scotsman" and move the goalpost. Again and again. 

But what's the TRUTH about breakthrough infections? 

Yes, it can occur. But it is quite rare. If you are fully vaccinated, you are 6.1X LESS LIKELY to test positive for COVID, and 11.3X less likely to die from COVID, than an unvaccinated person. Yes, hospital tracks stuff like that. And they report to the CDC, and CDC has statisticians and computers that compiles all that into nice charts and graphs and reports. 

As the booster shots just started, there are no stats on that yet, but I would not be surprised that the odds are even BETTER with booster shots. 

But the logic is simple: do you use only ONE layer of protection, or do you use as many layers as practical that you can live with? 

You wear your seatbelts in your car, your car has airbags, you drive safely, you are licensed, and you have insurance, right? 

CDC is recommending that some people get a booster shot after 6 months. Let's go over the reasons:

1) Everyone's immune system is a little different. And no one EVER said vaccines are 100% effective. 

2) Some people's immunity response wears off faster than others. This is known as "waning immunity". Those people need booster shots. 

3) Some people who are immune-compromised don't develop enough antibodies. They also need booster shots. 

4) Precautions are still necessary after vaccination. Being indoors in unventilated spaces with potentially infected people while unmasked can lead to high viral load that overwhelms your immune system, EVEN WITH vaccination. That's why you STILL should mask up. 

You should not take any unnecessary chances with your body, and going without COVID vaccine is one of the unnecessary chances.