Monday, January 3, 2022

Data COVIDiocy: No, Ivermectin Did NOT Save Uttar Pradesh (India) from COVID-19

Gideon MK, an actual epidemiologist, has written an article on medium on how antivaxxers and IVM pimps such as the FLCCC, desperate to find any evidence to support their use of Ivermectin (IVM) instead of vaccines, had created a myth out of almost nothing. The article is not too long, but in case you need a TL;DR, here's a very quick summary. 

A) FLCCC made a claim that when IVM was included in the treatment protocol in Uttar Pradesh, both case numbers and deaths dropped like a rock. They even made a graph to show it. 


(Those of you who read this blog may notice this is a VERY similar claim used in the "Japan COVID cases fall after Tokyo Medical Association calls for IVM use". )

But what exactly is this "IVM included in treatment protocol"? Turns out, Uttar Pradesh did NOT include IVM in its treatment protocols until AUGUST. Since the "included in treatment" shading started in April, this can't possibly be referring to the official treatment protocol. 

Turns out, there were two separate "test, trace, and treat" efforts by WHO in Uttar Pradesh, Basically, workers went door to door offering tests for COVID, one for adults, and one for kids. If they test positive, they were told to self-isolate and were handed a medical kit. The one for children contained IVM. We don't know what's in the adult version. Based on the test numbers, even if one assumes that EVERYBODY who was tested was handed a kit containing IVM (positive or not, child or not), there are at best 5 million kits containing IVM handed out. Keep in mind that Uttar Pradesh has a population of well in excess of 200 million. Even if we take a conservative number, like 225 million (it could be as high as 250 million), 5 million kits of IVM is enough for just over 2% of the population. It could NOT have caused the sharp drop in both cases and deaths. 

Keep in mind that during most of May 2021, India's vaccination rate is BELOW 10% for even just ONE dose, much less both shots (it's like 3%). Testing efforts can't be much better. 

So the drop in COVID cases and deaths are far more likely result of the lockdown (which started in April 2021) and lack of testing than from IVM treatments. 

What's even more interesting to note is Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) COVID 19 National Task Force OFFICIALLY dropped both IVM and HQL in September 2021 in its treatment guidelines. 

If you read the comments, the IVM pimps went for "pharma shill gambit", i.e. "are you paid by Merck to write this?" While others call out what they see as "bias". 

Frankly, that's just barking up the wrong tree. 

Don't be a COVIDiot like these IVM pimps who sees IVM benefit when there was none. 

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